OPINION — Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Vladimir Putin anticipated a swift victory from his “particular army operation.” Instead, it’s Kyiv now conducting particular air campaigns in opposition to Russia’s oil and gasoline {industry}. Ordinary Russians are starting to really feel the battle’s prices extra instantly and the stress on the Kremlin is rising.
Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, focusing on Russian oil refineries. By 2024, the Biden administration was upset on the affect Ukraine was starting to have, because the US was delicate to adjustments in oil costs.
But for Russia, oil and gasoline revenues assist fund its ongoing battle in opposition to Ukraine. Russia’s reliance on large recruitment bonuses to maintain its battle effort in Ukraine is straining its financial system, driving up wages and inflation because the army competes with civilian industries for labor. According to a June survey by the unbiased Russian pollster Levada Center, 58% of Russians named rising costs as their high concern.
Drones have shaped the spine of Ukraine’s protection, however now, they’re more and more used on the offensive in opposition to Russia. Over time, drone strikes turned extra efficient. By 2025, Ukraine had constructed an intensive fleet of long-range drones and put them to make use of, focusing on Russian oil, hitting Moscow the place it hurts most. Kyiv believes these to be “kinetic sanctions,” because the West has been hesitant to focus on Russian oil for years. And for Putin, gasoline costs are politically harmful.
Since early August, Ukraine has carried out greater than a dozen strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as a lot as 20% of refining capability – over 1 million barrels a day. According to The Economist, the assaults have compelled rationing, despatched wholesale petrol costs up by greater than 50%, and pushed Russia to droop gasoline exports. The assaults have continued into September.
The result’s that Russians are caught in lengthy traces ready for gasoline. Some cities reportedly don’t have any gasoline provides left. Local authorities budgets are in freefall. All of Russia’s main oil firms have reported revenue declines in 2025, with industry-wide earnings lower in half.
The shortages now dominate the headlines of Russian newspapers. By early September, Putin himself was compelled to admit that Russia is dealing with a gasoline scarcity. The result’s rising social stress throughout the nation. One Russian battle blogger wrote, “We’ve been half-dead right here for months, digging mud within the trenches, below drones day by day, counting bullets, whereas again house, oil refineries are burning down in batches.”
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The Kremlin’s official narrative has been that harm to refineries got here from falling particles after drones had been shot down. Yet on the similar time, Russian authorities broadcast loudspeaker warnings urging residents to not document footage of Ukrainian drones – an implicit admission that direct hits had been occurring and to not broadcast the success of Kyiv’s efforts.
Things will proceed to worsen for Russia. Ukrainian protection firm Fire Point has not too long ago unveiled two new ballistic missiles, the FP-7 and FP-9, with ranges of 200 km and 855 km respectively, as a part of Kyiv’s push to strike deeper into Russian territory. Kyiv has additionally been deploying AI drone swarms. With time, this expertise will probably be prolonged to long-range drones.
While these strikes alone could not decide the end result of the battle, they’re shaping its trajectory. Ukraine has proven it could possibly deliver the combat deep into Russia’s financial heartland, weakening the very revenues that maintain Moscow’s army machine.
Putin could be sensible to recollect the teachings of Tsar Nicholas II throughout World War I: when the frontlines dragged on and home shortages mounted, social stress at house proved as harmful because the enemy overseas.
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