For years, Mexico’s auto business regarded like a protected guess. Factories multiplied. Wages stayed modest. Unions had been manageable. The US market appeared assured. Then Washington raised the worth of entry.
In October 2025, Mexican automobile exports to the United States fell 14%, right down to about 16.1 billion {dollars}. From January to October, export values dropped 4.8% to roughly 154.9 billion {dollars}.
It was the primary regular setback since 2016, if the pandemic yr is ignored. Behind these numbers sits a easy change: increased tariffs.
The Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on vehicles constructed exterior the United States, a 25% tariff on imported heavy vans and a ten% tariff on buses.
Mexico is particularly uncovered. In 2024 it shipped 2.9 million automobiles price 78.5 billion {dollars} to the US. The broader auto sector exported greater than 182 billion {dollars}, near one-third of all Mexican exports to its northern neighbour.
On paper, Mexico adopted the foundations. About 84.5% of exports to the US meet USMCA content material necessities and luxuriate in preferential remedy.
Overall manufacturing exports are nonetheless up 8.6% in 2025. Non-auto industries now make up greater than 60% of gross sales overseas. But a slice of the auto sector sits exterior the commerce protect and pays the complete 25% obligation.
Firms reduce or delayed shipments early within the yr, and export volumes dropped greater than 11% within the first months. For unusual Mexicans this isn’t an summary argument about commerce regulation.
The auto business employs about 1.3 million folks, roughly 1 / 4 of all auto jobs in North America. In the primary half of 2025, round 329,000 posts disappeared, a 6.5% drop.
Most of these employees stay in border and Bajío states that constructed their improvement methods round supplying the US. The story behind the story is about selections. Mexico embraced nearshoring however stored a lot of its export mannequin tied to 1 purchaser and one political cycle.
Washington, dealing with voter anger over jobs and factories, selected tariffs as a substitute of latest subsidies or sluggish reforms. For expats, buyers and international observers, the lesson is obvious: cross-border provide chains solely really feel secure till politics decides in any other case.
