OPINION — “In the 12-month interval ending in October 2024 [Fiscal Year 2024], 84,076 Americans died from a drug overdose, based on the latest accessible provisional statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), underscoring the devastating impact these cartels have on our nation.
Although these numbers present a 25 % decline for the reason that similar 12-month interval final 12 months [Fiscal Year 2023] – when the nation misplaced 112,910 folks to drug poisonings – demonstrating optimistic momentum within the battle in opposition to these medicine and the organizations trafficking them, the risk stays grave. The development is hopeful, nevertheless. October 2024 was the eleventh consecutive month through which the CDC reported a discount, and the present statistics characterize the most important 12-month discount in drug overdose deaths ever recorded.”
The above was excerpted from the 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment, an annual report from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), which was revealed May 12, 2025, by the Trump administration’s Department of Justice and the DEA.
I seek advice from that 84,076 American death-by-drug overdose determine as a result of – though it’s far larger than acceptable — it’s a lot decrease than figures used just lately by President Trump to justify his just lately stepped up U.S. army operations in opposition to drug cartels and significantly alleged narco-traffickers off the Venezuelan coast.
Back on September 5, when President Trump was defending the September killing of 11 alleged Venezuelan narco-traffickers, he mentioned, “We’re sturdy on medicine. We don’t need medicine killing our folks. I consider we misplaced 300,000. You know, they all the time say 95[,000], 100,000. I consider they’ve been saying that for 20 years. I consider we misplaced 300,000 folks final 12 months.”
On September 15, throughout an Oval Office assembly, President Trump mentioned of drug cartels, “They killed 300,000 folks in our nation final 12 months and we’re not letting it occur anymore.” Later that very same day, at an impromptu airport press convention, President Trump mistakenly mentioned, “the truth that 300 million folks died final 12 months from medicine, that’s what’s unlawful.”
Only President Trump is aware of why he inflates the variety of American drug deaths on this nation that his personal DEA officers have supplied to the general public. But to me, it exhibits he needs to justify this current tactic of blowing up Venezuelan speedboats on the Caribbean Sea.
The September 2, September 15, and September 19 assaults reportedly have killed 17 people with out the U.S. army first stopping any of the speedboats to find out whether or not they’re narco-trafficking or not – as they did with a Venezuelan fishing boat on September 13.
However, for the three assaults, President Trump supplied video tapes which he mentioned confirmed the pace boats every being destroyed. In addition, each he and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned with the primary two, there are voice intercept tapes proving medicine had been concerned and that they had been destined for the U.S. “We have recorded proof and proof,” Trump advised reporters on September15, “We know what time they had been leaving, after they had been leaving, what that they had, and the entire different issues that you just’d prefer to have.”
But neither these voice tapes nor another particular proof has been made public.
In his September 4, letter to Congress, required by the War Powers Act after the September 2 assault, Trump wrote, “I directed these actions in step with my duty to guard Americans and United States pursuits overseas and in furtherance of nationwide safety and international coverage pursuits, pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive to conduct international relations.”
Meanwhile, many authorized specialists, together with retired Pentagon attorneys, have questioned the legality beneath the legislation of wars, maritime legislation or human rights conventions for these U.S. assaults. Such assaults additionally contradict longtime U.S. army apply.
My additional concern is that at his September 15, Oval Office trade with reporters, President Trump mused that “there is no medicine coming by sea, however they do come by land. And what? We’re telling the cartels proper now, we’ll be stopping them, too. When they arrive by land, we’ll be stopping them the identical method we cease the boats.”
The notion that Trump would order such an assault on one other nation’s land shouldn’t be far-fetched.
Back in the summertime of 2020, throughout his first time period in workplace, Trump privately requested his then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper, about launching missiles into Mexico to destroy drug labs, based on Esper’s 2022 memoir A Sacred Oath.
Early final month, each NBC and The New York Times reported that Trump had reportedly despatched a secret directive to the Pentagon asking for choices to assault Latin American drug cartels after that they had been named as terrorist organizations.
Last Friday, The New York Times revealed a narrative that mentioned, “Draft laws is circulating on the White House and on Capitol Hill that might hand President Trump sweeping energy to wage struggle in opposition to drug cartels he deems to be “terrorists,” in addition to in opposition to any nation he says has harbored or aided them, based on folks aware of the matter.”
That Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill are considering laws to justify what they’re already doing exhibits they acknowledge some authorized authority is required. However, what’s additionally lacking from a lot of the present media protection is what the U.S. had initiated through the Biden administration to counter hemisphere drug cartels.
The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to nationwide and international safety tales. It’s by no means been extra essential to grasp what’s taking place on this planet. Upgrade your entry to unique content material by changing into a subscriber.
Back in February 2025, The New York Times disclosed that the CIA beneath the Biden administration had, as a part of bilateral cooperation with Mexico, begun secret drone flights effectively into Mexico to hunt for fentanyl labs, and that the Trump administration was rising them.
CIA officers in Mexico handed info collected by the drones to Mexican officers, based on the Times, however the Mexican authorities was gradual to take motion in opposition to the labs, though the Mexican authorities did use a few of the CIA info to make arrests.
During a February 19, 2025, information convention, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum described the CIA drone program as a part of Mexico’s longstanding cooperation with U.S. forces. However, on September 10, Reuters revealed a extra in depth story about CIA’s counter-drug actions in Mexico, its reporters having spoken to greater than 60 present and former U.S. and Mexican safety sources, together with former CIA officers and diplomats and army officers from each international locations.
With the permission of the Mexican authorities, Reuters mentioned, the CIA had, in a beforehand covert, years-old program, individually vetted, skilled and outfitted two Mexican army models – a Mexican Army group and a particular Mexican Navy intelligence outfit. The Army outfit is comprised of a whole bunch of CIA-trained particular forces and, Reuters mentioned, “is seen because the army pressure in Mexico most able to nabbing closely armed drug lords holed up in fortified mountain hideouts.
For instance, Reuters reported, “The CIA’s Mexican Army group in January 2023 nabbed Ovidio Guzmán López, the son of the imprisoned cartel kingpin Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán.’”
More just lately, CIA beneath the Trump administration, has created a brand new Americas and Counternarcotics Mission Center, Reuters has mentioned, with prime counterterrorism officers reassigned to work on Mexican cartels. The company additionally has elevated its already existent drone surveillance flights south of the border.
However, I be part of Washington Post Columnist David Ignatius when he questions: “Why has the [U.S.] army been so silent because the Trump administration has pushed the bounds of legislation by…attacking alleged Venezuelan drug-smuggling boats overseas?”
As I’ve famous in earlier columns, on February 21, Hegseth, at a time when the highest Navy Judge Advocate General (JAG) had simply retired, fired the highest Army and Air Force JAGs giving as his solely said causes that he thought-about them not “effectively suited” for the job. Hegseth additionally mentioned he needed to keep away from “roadblocks to orders which might be given by a Commander-in-Chief.”
Ignatius identified, “The Trump crew has gutted the JAGs — choose advocate generals — who’re speculated to advise commanders on the rule of legislation, together with whether or not presidential orders are authorized. Without these impartial army attorneys backing them up, commanders haven’t any recourse apart from to conform or resign.”
President Trump, who needed to win a Peace Prize, it appears is now firmly on a struggle path.
The Cipher Brief is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals.
Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety area? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Read extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Brief
