OPINION — There has been an argument suggesting that the worldwide neighborhood—notably the United States—ought to interact with the Taliban to carry them accountable and guarantee they don’t return to the identical path they adopted earlier than 9/11: offering secure sanctuaries to Al Qaeda and different worldwide terrorist teams. Advocates of such a coverage typically assume that the United States had no engagement with the Taliban previous to 9/11. This assumption is deceptive. In actuality, the U.S. had established each direct and oblique communication channels with the Taliban years earlier than the assaults.
A declassified U.S. State Department doc detailing these interactions reveals that the Department alone carried out greater than 30 in-person conferences with the Taliban in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Germany, and the United States. Notably, simply two days after the U.S. missile strikes on Khost Province in response to the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, a telephone name was organized between the Director for Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh within the Bureau of South Asian Affairs and Mullah Omar. During that dialog, Mullah Omar insisted that negotiations ought to proceed by means of U.S. and Afghan embassies in Pakistan, underscoring his choice for sustained diplomatic engagement regardless of tensions.
The declassified doc highlights a gathering on September 18, 1996, when the Political Officer of the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan met with Mullah Jalil, then the Taliban’s liaison with the ISI and later appointed because the group’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. This assembly passed off simply days earlier than the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. In it, Mullah Jalil explicitly said that “the Taliban don’t assist terrorism and wouldn’t present refuge to bin Laden.” What unfolded after the autumn of Kabul to the Taliban, nevertheless, immediately contradicted that assurance. Moreover, one other report in the identical doc notes a gathering on January 16, 1997, throughout which, in response to a U.S. request to examine two terrorist coaching camps in Afghanistan’s japanese provinces, Mullah Jalil agreed and emphasised that “the Taliban supported the U.S. on counterterrorism and counternarcotics points.” Yet, regardless of this dedication, the Taliban by no means granted permission for the U.S. to go to these camps.
A assessment of this and different declassified paperwork regarding U.S. “diplomatic” engagement with the Taliban reveals a constant sample: the Taliban by no means adopted a definitive stance on surrendering Osama bin Laden or formally renouncing terrorism. Instead, they extended negotiations, repeatedly providing new “alternatives” to take care of U.S. engagement with out making substantive concessions. At the identical time, the United States missed a number of alternatives between 1996 and 2001 to behave on intelligence that would have curtailed bin Laden’s operations.
One recurring theme in these talks was the Taliban’s insistence that restrictions had been positioned on bin Laden, supposedly stopping him from threatening U.S. nationwide safety. Recent experiences counsel the Taliban are using an identical tactic immediately—although with up to date language and rationale. In conferences with U.S. officers between 2021 and 2022, Taliban representatives portrayed themselves as taking “efforts in opposition to terrorism.” This narrative was so deceptive that one member of the worldwide neighborhood described Afghanistan as “a retirement residence for terrorists”—implying that the Taliban’s technique was to not oppose Al Qaeda, however fairly to protect its members by offering them with secure haven, monetary assist, and a quiet life away from the frontlines of worldwide terrorism.
In actuality, the state of affairs in Afghanistan is deeply distressing for anybody who, in any capability, was concerned within the 20 years of the Global War on Terror or in broader efforts to advance peace and safety worldwide. What makes it much more troubling is the acquainted sample: simply as within the pre-9/11 years, the Taliban proceed to current themselves as companions in managing terrorism whereas in actuality providing sanctuary and area for terrorist teams —together with Al Qaeda—to endure and pursue their efforts for international terrorism.
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Al Qaeda’s Operational Command
Al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan immediately is multilayered and in depth. They can now not be considered merely a non-Afghan jihadist group that selected to stay within the nation after the Mujahideen started dropping territory to the Taliban within the Nineties. Instead, they’re now thought-about an in-group fairly than outsiders, largely as a result of Al Qaeda fought alongside the Taliban in opposition to the ANDSF and NATO forces for practically 20 years. The Taliban’s return to energy is considered by Al Qaeda as a joint victory, additional solidifying their bond.
As a outcome, Al Qaeda now not maintains the diploma of operational distance from the Taliban that it did previous to 9/11. A telling instance got here in July 2022, when Ayman al-Zawahiri was situated in a guesthouse only a few miles from Afghanistan’s Presidential Palace in Kabul, the place he was killed in a U.S. counterterrorism operation. His presence in a significant metropolis, with out vital safety precautions, was unprecedented and demonstrates the depth of Al Qaeda’s belief and confidence within the Taliban.
Developments since al-Zawahiri’s loss of life point out that, opposite to some predictions, his killing didn’t create a rift between the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Instead, it underscored the resilience of their partnership. The Taliban adjusted sure points of their safety structure—similar to tightening safehouse protocols and limiting the motion of senior figures—however these measures had been largely formed by Al Qaeda’s personal recommendation and operational experience. For its half, Al Qaeda internalized the lesson that even inside an atmosphere of unprecedented sanctuary, complacency might show deadly. Rather than distancing itself from the Taliban, the group recalibrated its safety posture, adopting extra disciplined precautions for its senior management whereas sustaining its shut integration with Taliban constructions.
Far from weakening the connection, the incident created a brand new opening for Al Qaeda to extend its leverage throughout the Taliban. By portraying itself because the extra skilled actor in counter-surveillance and operational safety, Al Qaeda positioned itself to intervene extra immediately in Taliban decision-making processes, notably these associated to safety reforms and intelligence practices. In this fashion, al-Zawahiri’s loss of life turned not a degree of rupture, however a chance for Al Qaeda to deepen its affect over the Taliban’s inner constructions. This growth allowed Al Qaeda to function with even better freedom.
To successfully facilitate its operations in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda restructured its organizational framework in late 2022, drawing on each its historic practices and the teachings discovered from 20 years of battle. The experiences recommended that on the heart of this effort was the appointment of a brand new Emir (chief) for Afghanistan, at present based mostly in Kandahar, who steadily travels to key provinces similar to Kabul, Khost, Nangarhar, and Balkh. The Emir acts because the very important conduit between Al Qaeda’s senior management and its provincial operatives, guaranteeing cohesion throughout dispersed items and sustaining alignment with the group’s broader strategic goals.
Under his supervision, Al Qaeda has organized comparatively small operational cells of 15–25 people in every province. These cells are intentionally saved small to scale back publicity whereas sustaining flexibility and resilience. Despite their measurement, they serve extremely specialised capabilities—starting from managing logistics for coaching camps and working safehouses and guesthouses to facilitating covert communications and conducting counterintelligence operations. The UN Security Council Monitoring Team’s thirty fifth report corroborates the existence of Al Qaeda coaching camps, safehouses, and guesthouses inside Afghanistan as properly. Counterintelligence actions of Al Qaeda are notably essential, enabling the group to observe potential infiltrators, detect hostile intelligence efforts, and safeguard its networks from compromise. This decentralized but disciplined construction not solely gives Al Qaeda with a sturdy operational footprint but additionally creates a scalable framework for future growth, permitting the group to attract on native recruits and international fighters at any time when circumstances allow.
The Emir’s function extends past coordinating provincial operations to managing the clandestine motion and integration of operatives. Through a community of facilitators and couriers, he oversees the discreet switch of personnel throughout Afghanistan’s borders—primarily from Pakistan and Iran, and infrequently through Central Asia. Recruits are sometimes moved in small teams to keep away from detection, quickly sheltered in safehouses, after which built-in into Al Qaeda’s Afghan construction by means of vetting, indoctrination, and coaching. This cautious orchestration ensures that even when particular person cells are compromised, the broader community stays intact and adaptable. By guaranteeing safe transit routes and embedding fighters into operational items, the Emir performs a pivotal function in Al Qaeda’s survival, regeneration, and deepening partnership with the Taliban, whose safety constructions present important cowl.
In mid-2024, Mohammed Salahuddin Zeidan—higher often known as Saif al-Adl and serving as Al Qaeda’s operational chief—characterised Afghanistan as Dar al-Hijra, the “Land of Emigration,” in an essay meant to rally assist for the reason for Gaza. He described Afghanistan as a refuge the place Muslims from around the globe might migrate to safeguard their religion and consolidate energy in preparation for placing their enemies. In the essay, Saif al-Adl urged Muslims globally to return to Afghanistan “to achieve coaching, expertise, and data earlier than enterprise assaults in opposition to” Israel and the Western world. This assertion was not solely a name to arms but additionally a public sign of what Al Qaeda expects from the Taliban and the territory below their management. The Taliban, for his or her half, did nothing to refute the decision; as a substitute, they launched a marketing campaign to draw extra “vacationers” from around the globe to Afghanistan, thereby reinforcing Al Qaeda’s narrative fairly than undermining it. Undoubtedly, the absence of strategic counterterrorism capabilities on the bottom, the Taliban’s complicity with Al Qaeda, and the nation’s tough terrain collectively make Afghanistan the most secure place on the planet for Al Qaeda and different terrorist teams to consolidate, regroup, and increase.
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Al Qaeda’s Revenue Hub
Al Qaeda can also be in search of to generate income for its actions in Afghanistan. To this finish, the group established a second command-and-control hub in Panjshir Province, distinct from its major base in Kandahar. Unlike the Kandahar construction, which focuses on operational coordination, the Panjshir hub is tasked with attracting funding in mining tasks throughout Panjshir, Sar-e Pul, Takhar, Badakhshan, and different northern provinces with the purpose of boosting Al Qaeda’s monetary sources. Recently, the Press Office of the Taliban’s governor in Panjshir, Mawlawi Mohammad Agha Hakim—himself identified to carry allegiance to Al Qaeda—reported that he had acquired a delegation of Ulema and buyers from the Middle East, together with representatives from Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar. According to the governor’s workplace, the delegation expressed curiosity in investing in Panjshir. Particularly notable was the presence of Abdullah al-Zindani, head of the Yemeni Ulema Shura and son of Abdul Majid al-Zindani. The elder al-Zindani, now deceased, was widely known as the religious mentor of Osama bin Laden and a key determine in operating Al Qaeda’s recruitment and coaching camps. The participation of his son in such a delegation underscores the enduring transnational networks that proceed to maintain Al Qaeda’s presence and ambitions in Afghanistan.
Interestingly, photographs of Abdullah al-Zindani and different members of the delegation visiting Panjshir had been extensively revealed within the media. The very subsequent day, nevertheless, the spokesperson for Governor Mohammad Agha Hakim launched a assertion declaring that the Taliban governor had banned the media from publishing photographs or movies of his conferences. This sequence of occasions means that the preliminary protection of the delegation’s go to was the results of an inner lapse. Once the pictures had been already in circulation, the next ban appeared much less like a safety measure and extra like a belated try at injury management—an effort that was in the end futile, because the photographs had already reached a large viewers.
Most senior appointments in Panjshir Province have reportedly been made on the advice of Al Qaeda, reflecting the group’s affect throughout the Taliban’s administrative construction. Mawlawi Hakim Agha, the present Taliban governor of Panjshir, beforehand held a distinguished place inside Al Qaeda’s command construction in Afghanistan—his placement as governor underscoring the Valley’s strategic significance to the community. Similarly, Mullah Musafer, commander of the Taliban’s Panjshir Bridage, stands out as one other crucial determine who has formally pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda. Long considered one of many group’s most elusive and influential operatives in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Musafer was implicated by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) in a number of high-profile assaults, together with the January 2017 terrorist assault in Kandahar that killed 5 UAE diplomats, the provincial deputy governor, and an Afghan diplomat. He will not be the one Al Qaeda operative embedded throughout the Taliban administration, however Musafer stays one of the vital vital given his twin function in directing army operations and facilitating illicit mining actions that generate substantial income for Al Qaeda. An unpublished report by a threat evaluation agency, shared amongst Western diplomats, signifies that Al Qaeda income tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} from mines in Badakhshan and Takhar.
Al Qaeda has enormously capitalized on the Taliban in Afghanistan to strengthen its networks of recruitment, operations, and financing. Since December 2021, an estimated 25,000 to 30,000 jihadi madrasas have been established throughout the nation, working exterior the supervision of the Taliban’s Ministry of Education. Oversight as a substitute falls below a newly created physique—the General Directorate of Jihadi Madrasas and Orphanages in Kandahar—which centralizes management of those establishments. Reports point out that the curriculum was designed by an Al Qaeda workforce, embedding the group’s ideological agenda into the tutorial system. Furthermore, candidates to those madrasas are subjected to particular safety clearance procedures, guaranteeing ideological conformity and minimizing infiltration, thus tightening Al Qaeda’s maintain over the subsequent era of militants. As a outcome, Al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan continues to pose a critical and enduring risk—not simply to Afghanistan and its neighbors, however to international safety at giant.
Conclusion
The Taliban’s return to energy has not altered the elemental dynamics between them and Al Qaeda; fairly, it has deepened them. The historical past of U.S.–Taliban negotiations earlier than 9/11 reveals a transparent sample of deception, one which persists in immediately’s engagements. Al Qaeda is now not an exterior visitor in Afghanistan—it’s an entrenched companion, strategically embedded inside Taliban constructions and empowered by a permissive atmosphere that allows coaching, recruitment, and financing. From exploiting illicit mining and cultivating transnational investor networks to indoctrinating a brand new era by means of tens of 1000’s of jihadi madrasas, Al Qaeda is rebuilding its infrastructure with the Taliban’s lively complicity. Far from being a “retirement residence for terrorists,” Afghanistan below the Taliban has grow to be the most secure and most sustainable base for Al Qaeda’s international ambitions for the reason that pre-9/11 period. Unless this trajectory is confronted with readability and resolve, the worldwide neighborhood dangers witnessing the regeneration of a risk with penalties that reach properly past Afghanistan’s borders.
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