Brazil’s market entered Tuesday on the entrance foot after a document shut, with Ibovespa futures close to 149,800 and the actual round 5.37 per greenback.
The rally appears easy from afar, nevertheless it rests on three reinforcing currents: a weaker international greenback, friendlier commerce optics, and a small however significant enchancment in Brazil’s inflation outlook.
When the greenback slips, emerging-market funding prices ease and Brazil’s fairness danger premium compresses. That tailwind met encouraging weekend alerts on commerce—each a thaw in U.S.–China tensions and a cordial Lula–Trump assembly seen as opening a channel to debate tariffs.
At residence, the central financial institution’s Focus survey nudged 2025 inflation expectations all the way down to 4.56%, serving to native charges edge decrease.
Cash turnover reached R$16.49 billion ($3.11 billion), and the primary U.S.-listed Brazil ETF has drawn roughly $285 million over the previous month, pointing to returning overseas curiosity.
The day’s winners and losers defined the feel of the transfer. Usiminas (USIM5) rose 10.53% on a post-earnings rerating and firmer metals sentiment. MBRF (MBRF3) gained 6.45% on Middle East enlargement in its halal enterprise.
Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) added 5.45%, CVC (CVCB3) climbed 3.91%, and CSN (CSNA3) superior 3.36% as cyclicals benefited from simpler charges and the softer greenback.
On the draw back, Raízen (RAIZ4) fell 2.06% after a credit-rating downgrade targeted buyers on leverage. Yduqs (YDUQ3) slipped 1.96%, Klabin (KLBN11) eased 1.06% amid softer pulp friends, Hypera (HYPE3) declined 0.97%, and Cogna (COGN3) edged 0.86% decrease.
Technicals align with the narrative. On the day by day chart, the index sits above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day shifting averages and rides the higher Bollinger band after an October retest of the 50-day—an intact uptrend with room towards 148,000–150,000 if momentum holds.
The four-hour chart is stretched, with RSI close to 70, arguing for a pause; dips that maintain about 145,000 maintain the construction constructive. The broader story for readers overseas: Brazil is rallying not simply on emotion.
A softer greenback, barely higher inflation expectations, and concrete firm catalysts are pulling in the identical route. If the greenback’s retreat persists and charges stay regular, overseas cash is prone to maintain following.
