Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL’s publication specializing in the important thing points regarding the European Union, NATO, and different establishments and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe’s Eastern neighborhoods.
I’m RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I’m drilling down on my current interview with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
A Conversation With NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte
On November 24, I performed a prolonged interview with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Our dialog touched upon Ukraine because it heads right into a important part of each the conflict with Russia and worldwide diplomacy to conclude the preventing.
It additionally lined different matters, similar to NATO-Russia relations, the US troop posture on NATO’s japanese flank, and Georgia and Serbia’s rising ties with China.
A Crucial Week For Ukraine
Initially, I used to be imagined to have spoken to Mark Rutte in Prague earlier this 12 months. Back then, the previous Dutch Prime minister needed to cancel because of an pressing assembly of the Franco-British “Coalition of the Willing” – a free grouping of Western nations aiming to offer extra navy assist for Ukraine.
This time, it seemed doubtless that the interview could be postponed as soon as extra.
A number of days prior, information broke a few US-authored 28-point plan to cease the conflict in Ukraine.
The doc appeared to catch at the very least Kyiv’s European allies off guard, and plenty of thought the doc seemed like a Kremlin “want record,” as Russia would acquire further Ukrainian territories, Ukraine’s military could be capped, Moscow could be welcomed again into the G7 group of main industrialized nations, Western sanctions could be step by step lifted, and an amnesty could be granted for conflict crimes.
The Europeans rapidly began to draft extra “Ukraine-friendly” counterproposals.
Heading into the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed his nation, admitting that Kyiv confronted a troublesome alternative, probably dropping a key associate within the United States or betraying a number of the nation’s key rules.
This was earlier than US and Ukrainian diplomats gathered in Geneva to attempt to hash out particulars of the plan with rumors that Zelenskyy would possibly head to the United States for direct talks with President Donald Trump earlier than the Thanksgiving lengthy weekend later this week.
Despite this and with days filled with telephone calls — together with to the US and Ukrainian Presidents — the top of the navy alliance discovered time to talk to us.
28-Point Plan Forms ‘A Basis’
So, what did he make of the 28-point proposal?
“I’m not going via each line of that plan,” Rutte repeated greater than as soon as through the speak however added: “clearly a number of the components must be actually thought via. But what you have seen yesterday [November 23] within the assembly in Geneva that as a foundation it helped to carry Ukraine and the US very shut on the way in which ahead.”
Being referred to as certainly one of few European leaders who really has Trump’s ear, the Dutchman was eager to indicate that he shares the identical imaginative and prescient because the US president in the case of a remaining consequence: “the tip state needs to be — and that is what Donald Trump has been engaged on since February — is a sovereign Ukraine going ahead, a robust nation, and Russia by no means making an attempt once more to assault it. That’s what we try to attain — all of us.”
But how this shall be achieved nonetheless must be labored out.
Rutte believes {that a} mixture of a robust Ukrainian Army, the Coalition of the Willing, and US safety ensures can do the trick, even when he skirted across the topic of whether or not troops from NATO nations shall be stationed within the war-torn nation after a possible cease-fire or peace plan.
Referencing his a few years as Dutch prime minister, he additionally outlined what he thought was wanted to get Moscow to stay to the deal.
“I do know one factor in regards to the Russians typically and Putin particularly,” he mentioned. “Whenever you make an settlement, it’s a must to be sure that it’s in his curiosity to maintain to it. So that is why it’s so vital that at any time when a peace deal is reached on Ukraine, that he won’t ever attempt once more. And he won’t ever attempt once more when he is aware of that the results for him shall be devastating if he tries to invade Ukraine once more after a long-term cease-fire or a ideally a peace deal.”
NATO-Russia Council Is ‘Dead’
While this needs to be labored out, Rutte did supply extra readability on two points pertaining on to NATO which have been talked about within the plan: future NATO-Russia relations and Ukraine’s possibilities of someday becoming a member of the alliance.
The 28-point plan envisages NATO and Russia having a dialogue on all safety points going ahead.
This beforehand occurred within the NATO-Russia Council, which final met earlier than the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The council, in flip, was created with the inking of the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997.
Rutte, nonetheless, dismissed the concept that that both of those our bodies might be resuscitated.
“These issues are lifeless,” he mentioned. “These two establishments — the NATO-Russia Council and the NATO-Russia Founding Act — are lifeless since Putin invaded Ukraine and subsequently mainly doing one thing which is in opposition to all the basics of our Western values and what the NATO-Russia Founding Act stood for and what the NATO Russian Council tried to attain.”
Ukraine’s NATO Door Remains Open
Rutte additionally appeared to maintain the door open for future Ukrainian membership of NATO although Moscow has been adamant that the alliance ought to agree to not develop additional eastward.
“Well, each nation within the realm of NATO, within the Euro-Atlantic space, who needs to turn into a member of NATO — and that is within the Washington Treaty of 1949 — can apply for membership,” he mentioned. “But to turn into a member you want unanimity. And, in the intervening time, that unanimity is much off.”
So far, it’s identified publicly that Hungary and Slovakia are in opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership although it’s believed that a number of different nations are hiding behind Bratislava and Budapest on this problem.
“At the second, we have now a few allies stating explicitly we’re in opposition to Ukraine accessing to NATO,” Rutte mentioned. “Of course, we even have had the language from the Washington summit final 12 months, which mentioned there may be this irreversible path into NATO. So that is one actuality. But there’s additionally the fact that a few allies have mentioned we’re in opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine.”
No Worries About US Troop Posture In Europe
While Ukraine dominated the interview, there was additionally time to the touch upon US troop posture in Europe, notably after Washington introduced in October that 1,000 American troops could be withdrawn from Romania.
“What occurred to Romania, I knew this was going to occur,” mentioned Rutte. “This needed to do with an adjustment, and the US has about 85,000 to 100,000 troops in Europe, they usually all the time make changes to guarantee that no matter troop presence they’ve in Europe, they make most use of that. And on this case, you will notice the Americans having extra troops in Europe even after this adjustment in comparison with what that they had in Europe earlier than 2022.”
The United States has not but revealed its international drive posture overview, anticipated to return early in 2026, however the NATO secretary-general claims to have had “superb discussions on that” and doesn’t count on “any dramatic modifications.”
When pushed on whether or not different nations of the alliance’s japanese flank ought to keep calm, Rutte merely mentioned “completely.”
Caution Over Serbia And Georgia
Finally, there was additionally time to ask about two nations in NATO’s neighborhood, Georgia and Serbia, which have drifted extra towards China.
As regards Belgrade, I requested about current joint navy drills with Beijing.
Although Rutte admitted that Serbia has a “sovereign proper to do this” he rapidly added that we must always “not be naive about China.”
“We know that China is working along with the Russians, with the North Koreans, with Iran, that subsequently what is occurring within the Indo-Pacific and what’s occurring within the Euro-Atlantic space is getting extra or extra related and intertwined,” he mentioned.
“So, in the case of China, I all the time mentioned NATO just isn’t solely there to verify we’re protected in opposition to the Russians, we have now to be protected in opposition to anybody who needs us ailing, and we have a look at the big buildup of the Chinese armed forces, let’s actually take heed to what’s occurring there.”
On Georgia, Rutte admitted that NATO is “extremely frightened” in regards to the democratic backsliding within the South Caucasus nation in recent times.
Yet, not like the EU, which is reevaluating its relationship with Tbilisi with decreased diplomatic contacts and the potential suspension of visa liberalization, NATO just isn’t but making any drastic modifications to the way it offers with Georgia.
“We have our cooperation with them,” Rutte mentioned. “I believe that cooperation itself serves a goal now, additionally to guarantee that we have now this channel to clarify what our worries are, and let’s additionally have a look at this complete factor a bit holistically, as a result of there may be Georgia, but in addition what is occurring between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which appears to be in a a lot better place, thanks additionally to what President Trump has been doing. So, I’d additionally have a look at Georgia within the context of the entire Southern Caucasus.”
Looking Ahead
The European Parliament plenary is in full swing this week!
Look out for the chamber debate on what the EU’s response to the American 28-point plan shall be on the morning of November 26.
Also hold an eye fixed out for the afternoon session the identical day on how the bloc ought to counter Belarusian airspace violations in Lithuania and Russia’s suspected current sabotage of Polish railway tracks.
That’s all for this week!
Feel free to succeed in out to me on any of those points on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until subsequent time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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