Russia’s once-deep reserves of armored autos are shrinking quickly, with new open-source assessments exhibiting dramatic reductions in saved tanks, infantry preventing autos, and artillery methods for the reason that begin of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine.
Yet analysts warning that the information shouldn’t be interpreted as proof that Moscow has run out of apparatus altogether.
OSINT specialist Jompy launched up to date assessments on October 7, utilizing satellite tv for pc imagery and depot inventories to trace the state of Russia’s armored reserves.
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Their findings present that Russia’s prewar stockpile of greater than 7,300 tanks has fallen to round 2,887 — that means greater than 4,400 tanks have been faraway from storage since February 2022. Many of people who stay are in poor situation, with solely about 23 % categorised as in respectable or usable state.
The knowledge signifies widespread depletion throughout all classes of armored autos. Prewar shares of T-72B tanks, as soon as the spine of Russia’s armored forces, have dropped from 1,478 to only 292. T-62 shares have been reduce by almost half, whereas T-80 collection tanks — together with the T-80BV and T-80UD — have fallen from greater than 1,450 to roughly 292. Even older fashions such because the T-54 and T-55, as soon as thought of out of date, have been reactivated and pushed into fight.
The sample repeats throughout different automobile lessons. Russia’s stock of BMP infantry preventing autos has declined from greater than 7,100 to 2,579, and its inventory of BMD airborne autos now stands at simply 166. Armored personnel carriers have additionally been closely drawn down, from over 11,000 earlier than the conflict to only over 5,000 in 2025. Artillery reserves, too, have thinned out — with large-caliber towed and self-propelled weapons diminished by almost half.
However, analysts stress that the state of affairs is extra complicated than a easy depletion of numbers. In his evaluation, Waffentraeger urged warning in deciphering the information.
“Firstly with sufficient effort any hull that wasn’t compromised by for instance having been burned (which makes metal weak) may be restored,” Waffentraeger stated. “There’s proof of comparatively rusted hulls being taken as materials for deep modernisations. Even the worst situation tanks may very well be reactivated to 100%, in principle. This just isn’t economical (a brand new tank can be cheaper) however nonetheless quicker than constructing a brand new T-90M, normally.”
He famous that it isn’t attainable to find out from satellite tv for pc imagery alone whether or not a tank hull is just too broken to restore or when Russian planners resolve to scrap one fully.
“We merely can’t assess if a tank hull has certainly been compromised with satellite tv for pc footage alone or at what level the Russians will resolve to scrap a hull,” Waffentraeger stated. “What we are able to assess is that it’s going to take lots longer to rebuild a tank in worse situation than one in respectable. This will negatively have an effect on the refurbishment price slightly than that means an entire cease of provide.”
The slowing refurbishment course of signifies that Moscow might want to preserve its remaining armored autos extra rigorously sooner or later than it did in 2023 and 2024, when there was nonetheless a plentiful provide of tanks that may very well be rapidly restored and deployed.
The T-80B/BV collection has been fully exhausted from long-term storage, although there are nonetheless ample parts and partial hulls accessible to maintain work at refurbishment crops for roughly a 12 months.
The new evaluation underscores the twin actuality dealing with Moscow: whereas the simple reserves are drying up and the situation of remaining tools is steadily worsening, Russia retains the commercial capability to refurbish even closely degraded autos — a course of that, whereas slower and fewer environment friendly, will seemingly proceed supplying armored models for years to return.
For Western analysts, the message is obvious: Russia’s stockpile is shrinking, however it’s removed from empty. The subsequent section of the conflict will seemingly hinge not simply on battlefield attrition however on the velocity and scale of Russia’s skill to carry its getting older, rusting fleet again to life.
