The county seat of Santa Clara is touting its partnership with Pacific Gas & Electric, claiming town is “the West Coast’s premier vacation spot for knowledge middle growth.” The investor-owned utility now estimates it has sufficient capability in its planning pipeline to push town’s electrical energy use to nearly 3 times its present peak.
Those plans are forcing main grid upgrades, PG&E and metropolis officers say, whereas elevating questions on who pays for them and whether or not the state can preserve the facility clear.
Panelists at a CalMatters occasion in downtown San José clashed over key points. They included an area official working with PG&E on town’s knowledge middle build-out, a tech advocate urging California to grab the financial second, a Stanford vitality professional urgent for a extra modernized grid and a utility watchdog skeptical of AI’s promised advantages.
Their dialogue centered on how shortly California ought to transfer to accommodate new demand, what info the general public must be entitled to and easy methods to preserve clients from shouldering the price of infrastructure which will by no means be absolutely used.
Proposals to extra strictly regulate knowledge middle growth died within the Legislature this 12 months. Going ahead, a number of state companies and commissions are anticipated to take up additional discussions, together with the California Energy Commission, the Little Hoover Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission.
How a lot vitality will California’s new knowledge facilities really need?
The surge in AI is complicating efforts by regulators and utilities to forecast how shortly knowledge facilities will develop and the way a lot energy they’ll want. Companies can suggest giant amenities with out committing to construct them, the computing calls for behind AI are altering shortly and cooling wants fluctuate throughout the state. These elements make long-term vitality wants laborious to pin down.
According to the state’s electricity-demand forecast, utilities report that knowledge facilities, in planning paperwork, have requested 18.7 gigawatts of service capability. That’s sufficient to energy roughly 18 million houses, in contrast with California’s estimated 14 to fifteen million. Regulators don’t count on all of these tasks to be constructed, and assume those that do will come on-line steadily and function at lower than their requested capability, producing a forecast of between 4 and 6 gigawatts by 2040.
Liang Min, who directs Stanford’s Bits & Watts Initiative, and a speaker on CalMatters’ panel, mentioned that forecasting is especially powerful as a result of corporations are rolling out new AI apps — or “utility layers,” as he put it — at breakneck pace. They embrace merchandise like ChatGPT that use giant language fashions. No one is aware of which apps will take off, and people unsure bets are driving big calls for on the facility grid.
“Right now we’re actually struggling,” Min mentioned. “The threat is extraordinarily excessive within the utility layers.”
The Public Advocates Office, an unbiased shopper watchdog inside the California Public Utilities Commission, lately warned that speedy knowledge middle development might depart Californians paying for billions of {dollars} in grid upgrades if tasks by no means materialize or use far much less energy than promised.
“Ratepayers might find yourself paying for expensive infrastructure upgrades that is probably not wanted for a few years — or in any respect,” the workplace mentioned in its commentary.
Min mentioned forecasting knowledge middle load is a nationwide problem, however California will want higher instruments to maintain charges in examine, meet its clean-energy targets and keep aggressive with states racing to draw knowledge facilities and high-paying tech jobs.
Local officers have additionally begun to grapple with the uncertainty. In San José, metropolis vitality officers say they’re reluctant to obtain extra energy till they know which tasks will truly be constructed. “We don’t need to purchase extra energy than we want,” mentioned panelist Lori Mitchell, director of San José Clean Energy, town’s publicly owned electrical energy supplier. “That’s job No. 1.”
What are the environmental issues across the knowledge middle growth?
California’s knowledge middle growth is bringing a wave of environmental issues that state officers are solely starting to know. Those issues middle on water use, the carbon emissions tied to rising vitality demand and the air air pollution from diesel backup turbines.
Air high quality is a selected concern. Although backup turbines run solely intermittently, their presence is concentrated in a handful of areas. In Santa Clara County, the place many amenities sit shut collectively in dense industrial areas, the native impacts might be larger just because a lot tools is packed right into a small house.
Yet the state nonetheless has restricted visibility into what knowledge facilities are doing. Attempts to require extra transparency stalled this 12 months amid tech trade opposition. The solely measure that turned legislation provides regulators the authority to find out whether or not knowledge facilities are driving up prices — however stops in need of requiring environmental reporting.
Ahmad Thomas, chief government of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, and one other panelist, mentioned his group opposed the electrical energy disclosure and water reporting measures as a result of they might make California much less aggressive.
“It’s very laborious to see a world the place California is on the prime of the AI pile if we shouldn’t have an method to knowledge facilities that’s — at minimal — mildly aggressive with different states,” he added.
Consumer advocates say the lack of awareness leaves communities unprotected. “We definitely assume there must be extra transparency — that’s an excellent factor,” mentioned panelist Mark Toney, the manager director of the Utility Reform Network, a ratepayer advocacy group.
Will knowledge facilities decelerate California’s swap to scrub vitality?
The speedy development of knowledge facilities might sluggish California’s clean-energy transition if it retains the state tied to pure gasoline. And a number of the carbon-free various vitality sources that would meet their energy wants are deeply controversial amongst environmentalists.
The state has pledged to achieve 100% carbon-free electrical energy by 2045, but it nonetheless relies upon closely on natural-gas crops throughout sizzling summer season days. A current report by the environmental assume tank Next 10 and UC Riverside estimated that knowledge middle carbon emissions almost doubled from 2019 to 2023 — largely from gas-fired era — underscoring how even a comparatively clear grid might battle to soak up AI-driven load with out larger emissions.
State leaders are making coverage shifts as AI demand grows. California this 12 months authorized becoming a member of a broader Western energy market, a transfer pushed partially by new calls for on the grid, together with knowledge facilities. Critics warn that the change might expose the state to dirtier electrical energy from different states and weaken its management over clean-energy guidelines.
Min of Stanford argues that California might want to depend on choices some environmentalists would slightly keep away from. That contains holding on to present sources just like the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. In a current report, Min argued the state may also want extra “clear, agency” energy — sources that may function across the clock — comparable to geothermal vitality or natural-gas crops with carbon seize.
PG&E agrees. Spokesperson Stephanie Magallon instructed CalMatters in an e-mail that nuclear energy, carbon-capture programs and huge solar-plus-battery tasks are all choices into consideration for powering knowledge facilities in its area. But environmental justice critics in California have opposed carbon seize expertise, calling it unproven tech that dangers extending fossil-fuel use.
Mitchell mentioned neighborhood alternative aggregators can handle new knowledge middle load whereas conserving energy clear and inexpensive. San José’s combine is already 60% renewable, and he or she mentioned the largest alternative is flexibility — getting knowledge facilities to shift use off the most popular afternoons so town can keep away from shopping for extra energy.
Will knowledge facilities elevate your electrical invoice?
California’s knowledge middle growth is reshaping the combat over electrical energy payments, exposing a divide over whether or not these new clients will decrease prices — or drive them larger for everybody else.
PG&E argues that including giant customers like knowledge facilities can decrease charges as a result of fastened grid prices could be unfold throughout extra clients. It additionally claims the grid is underutilized on common — working at about 45% of capability — though the grid faces actual pressure through the hottest hours and in components of the system that routinely run near their limits. If knowledge facilities will be related in locations with obtainable capability, PG&E argues, they may assist unfold prices with out worsening congestion.
Toney, one other panelist, urged the state to decelerate, warning that California is planning main infrastructure with out figuring out which knowledge facilities are actual or how their prices will land on buyer payments.
“I’m fearful that we’re engaged in what I name faith-based policymaking,” he mentioned. “The advantages are very speculative, however the prices are very actual.”
Some states, mentioned Toney, have begun tightening guidelines across the development of knowledge facilities. One legislation in Oregon would require knowledge middle grid prices to stay off family payments. A Minnesota legislation will give very giant knowledge facilities their very own billing class so regulators can preserve their prices separate from different clients’ electrical payments.
“This difficulty of knowledge facilities and the connection between affordability and clear vitality is of nationwide concern, and California is definitely behind on this,” Toney mentioned. “There’s this mythology about California being the chief on a regular basis.”
Lazo writes for CalMatters.
