Colombia’s newest tax report appears like excellent news. Between January and October, the tax authority DIAN collected 249.12 trillion pesos (about $66 billion), 11.3% greater than in the identical interval of 2024.
In October alone, income jumped virtually 16% to 19.72 trillion pesos (about $5 billion). Behind the upbeat percentages lies a more durable actuality. The state continues to be in need of its 300-trillion-peso goal – 300 trillion pesos (about $79 billion) – within the medium-term fiscal plan.
With solely two months left, Colombia dangers ending the 12 months with a income hole and fewer room to fund its guarantees. Fiscal watchdogs say income might end greater than eight trillion pesos (simply over $2 billion) under plan.
Who is paying explains a lot of the stress. Roughly one third of all income comes from income-tax withholding on salaries. Another fifth comes from VAT and different gross sales taxes, adopted by customs duties and a mixture of smaller levies.
The formal center class, registered corporations and customers within the official financial system carry a lot of the weight, whereas massive components of the casual sector contribute little.
To shut the hole, DIAN is relying much less on broad reform and extra on strain. “Active management” – chasing previous money owed, utilizing digital invoices to identify under-reporting, tightening audits – has already introduced in about 48 trillion pesos (round $13 billion) this 12 months.
The authority can also be locked in a dispute over an enormous VAT invoice for state oil firm Ecopetrol, a sign that no large taxpayer is off limits. For expats and international buyers, the story behind the numbers is about predictability.
A rustic that repeatedly misses its tax targets, whereas increasing the dimensions and attain of the state, is prone to preserve looking for new income sources. That can imply additional fees on digital platforms, new import taxes on on-line buying, or sudden modifications in enterprise guidelines as a substitute of regular spending self-discipline.
Colombia shouldn’t be in rapid disaster. Growth continues, and tax receipts are rising. But the hole between what the federal government collects and what it has promised to spend is a warning signal about tomorrow’s political choice on who shall be requested to pay extra.
