CHARLEBOIS: Think hen is costly now? Just anticipate 2026

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In idea, provide administration is designed to guard each farmers and shoppers — a uniquely Canadian invention meant to make sure stability, equity and predictability in our meals provide.

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But 2025 has proven how fragile that promise has turn into.

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Canada is now going through some of the extreme hen shortages in current historical past, and shoppers — not farmers or processors — are paying the value.

For many years, hen has been the regular protein of the Canadian food plan: Versatile, inexpensive and insulated from world worth swings. Yet this yr, the system meant to ensure a constant provide merely failed. The Chicken Farmers of Canada, the company that units manufacturing quotas in eight-week “A-periods,” has underproduced for 9 consecutive cycles — one thing unseen in over 40 years.

The pillars of provide administration

Supply administration rests on three pillars: Domestic manufacturing, managed imports, and storage reserves. When one falters, the opposite two often cushion the influence. This time, all three failed without delay.

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After an oversupply in late 2023, the business diminished allocations to keep away from one other glut heading into the 2024 vacation season. It was a cautious transfer that backfired. By early 2025, demand rebounded sharply as record-high beef costs despatched households trying to find cheaper animal protein. Imports had been exhausted months early, and frozen reserves had been by no means replenished. By spring, Canada had burned by way of each security valve.

Data obtained by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab reveal simply how critical the scenario turned. Wholesale hen breast costs climbed to $732 per 100 kilogram in late October 2025 — up $150 from final yr, a brand new report. Even the whole-bird index hit $542, up greater than $70 yr over yr. Wholesale wing costs rose to $573, roughly 12% larger than final October, whereas leg costs — the one class not restricted by quota — truly dropped, underscoring how distorted the system has turn into.

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These record-high costs have endured for many of 2025, an indication that demand has far outpaced provide throughout the nation.

Eating extra American hen

Imports, usually a launch valve, couldn’t sustain. According to the CARI Importer’s Edge, hen imports beneath commerce quotas totalled 110.9 million kilos year-to-date, almost 20% larger than the identical interval final yr. The surge was pushed largely by the United States, which has shipped virtually thrice extra hen to Canada than in 2024 — up 190% to 2.25 million kilos to this point.

Most Canadians don’t know they’re consuming way more American hen than earlier than, a delicate actuality given present U.S.–Canada commerce tensions. What’s extra, almost all of Canada’s 2025 import quota has already been used, leaving “the remaining TRQ in robust arms,” in keeping with importers. With restricted room to manoeuvre, Canada is now paying world-record costs for a product that’s plentiful and low cost simply south of the border.

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The scenario was compounded by authorities inaction. When manufacturing lagged, processors requested about three million kilograms of emergency import permits — a routine mechanism meant to stabilize provide. Ottawa permitted lower than 10% of the request. Officials insisted manufacturing was “on plan.” But when retailer cabinets are naked and costs have by no means been larger, “on plan” doesn’t imply a lot to households attempting to place dinner on the desk. By denying these permits, the federal authorities successfully locked the scarcity in place.

The construction of the business meant the ache wasn’t shared evenly. Large processors resembling Maple Leaf and Olymel met their commitments to main grocers like Costco and Walmart. Smaller processors and eating places, nevertheless, had been left scrambling — pressured to pay inflated spot-market costs or purchase grey-market poultry from the U.S. simply to remain open. Farmers loved strong returns from tighter provide, and processors noticed report margins, however small companies and shoppers paid the value.

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System rigidity prevents correct response

This isn’t how provide administration is meant to operate. The very rigidity that after introduced order now prevents the system from reacting to shocks. Once manufacturing targets are set, correcting an error can take months. In a world of inflation, erratic shopper habits, and climate-related volatility, that form of lag is not acceptable. When the market indicators a scarcity, the response can’t be to attend for the subsequent allocation cycle.

The lesson from 2025 is obvious: The system didn’t fail as a result of Canadians ate an excessive amount of hen or farmers produced too little. It failed as a result of Canada’s supply-management framework is just too gradual, too bureaucratic, and too disconnected from real-time market circumstances. A construction constructed to withstand volatility has as an alternative amplified it. By refusing to problem well timed import permits, Ottawa let costs spiral and signaled that stability now means shortage.

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This may have been a possibility. With beef costs hovering, Canadian hen may have turn into the inexpensive protein households turned to. Instead, a once-reliable staple turned, virtually in a single day, a luxurious merchandise. Beyond grocery payments, the scarcity eroded public belief in a system that’s imagined to steadiness equity for farmers with affordability for shoppers.

Supply administration isn’t inherently flawed. But it should evolve. Allocations ought to align with actual demand, emergency import mechanisms should set off mechanically when shortages come up, and transparency should substitute complacency. Canadians deserve a system that responds to market actuality, not one which hides behind forms.

Because when a rustic that prides itself on meals safety can’t even preserve hen on the desk, it’s not only a provide problem — it’s a coverage failure.

— Sylvain Charlebois is director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, co-host of The Food Professor Podcast and visiting scholar at McGill University.

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