Are Americans feeling worse this vacation season than lately? That’s the narrative rising from the legacy press however there’s little or no to assist it.
The Associated Press revealed a extensively distributed story this week claiming American consumers face financial situations this vacation season that “look very related” to December 2022, when inflation hit a four-decade excessive. But an examination of the polling information reveals the information group strategically omitted asking key questions on vacation procuring conduct in 2023 and 2024, whereas utilizing loaded language and selective anecdotes to fabricate a story of Trump-era financial failure.
The December 12 story, doesn’t lead with the buyer perceptions and procuring behaviors the ballot really measured. Instead, it opens with an editorial verdict introduced as goal actuality: “This vacation season isn’t fairly so merry for American consumers as giant shares are dipping into financial savings, scouring for bargains and feeling like the general economic system is caught in a rut below President Donald Trump.”
The framing embeds a political conclusion within the scene-setting itself, treating “caught in a rut below President Donald Trump” because the baseline actuality slightly than an clearly anti-Trump interpretation of the info.
Within paragraphs, the story shifts from reporting sentiment to asserting causation. “Trump’s sequence of tariffs have added to inflationary pressures and generated anxiousness in regards to the stability of the U.S. economic system,” the reporters write, presenting this as established truth with out quantifying the tariff impact, distinguishing between worth ranges and inflation charges, or offering financial evaluation.
In truth, tariffs don’t seem like meaningfully including to inflationary pressures. A current research by researchers on the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco discovered that 150 years of tariff information indicated tariffs don’t trigger inflation. Durable items costs, as measured by the non-public consumption expenditure costs index, fell in every of the three months via September, the final information out there.
The story is thick with loaded language that alerts editorial posture slightly than impartial reporting: Trump officers plan to ship the president “barnstorming” to “buck up” folks’s religion; the findings are a “sobering evaluation”; Trump’s message creates a “jarring distinction”; the job market has entered a “deep freeze.” This is narrative building, not financial journalism.
What the story omits is extra revealing than what it consists of. AP-NORC requested questions on procuring behaviors—together with whether or not individuals are “purchasing for nonessential objects” lower than traditional or “delaying huge purchases”—solely in December 2021 and December 2025, skipping the intervening years solely, in line with the ballot’s topline outcomes.
The polling group did observe general financial sentiment yearly throughout these hole years. That information, buried within the technical appendix, exhibits Americans’ view of the economic system improved from 25 % saying it was “good” in December 2022 to 32 % in December 2024—a 28 % improve. The present determine of 31 % is just about unchanged from Biden’s closing yr.
By selecting to not ask the procuring conduct questions in 2023 and 2024, AP-NORC created what quantities to an analytical void. Without these information factors, it’s inconceivable to find out whether or not Americans felt much more squeezed throughout Biden’s closing two years or whether or not situations have improved below Trump.
The AP story repeatedly emphasizes what Americans have “seen.” Eighty-seven % seen increased grocery costs, 69 % seen increased electrical energy costs, 63 % seen increased vacation reward costs.
But it buries proof that contradicts its “caught in a rut” thesis. The share of these noticing increased grocery costs has really declined from 95 % in 2022. The ballot discovered simply 49 % seen increased gasoline costs in comparison with 83 % who stated the identical in December 2022. The share noticing increased reward costs declined from 69 % three years in the past. By these measures, we’re not “caught in a rut” however bettering below President Trump.
The AP story has been republished by dozens of reports shops nationwide, together with a whole lot of native newspapers that subscribe to AP’s wire service. Each used almost similar framing, emphasizing Trump’s struggles with inflation and client sentiment, creating what quantities to a synchronized narrative throughout the media panorama.
