28 November will probably be remembered by many as ‘Black Friday’ as a result of dismissal of Andriy Yermak (pictured). For exterior observers, the occasion is unremarkable, however inside Ukraine it’s a actual recreation changer. The searches of Yermak’s home and his instant resignation from the submit of head of the Presidential Office disrupted the plans of many individuals in his vertical chain of command – MPs, ministers and others, writes Gary Cartwright.
Yermak wasn’t known as the primary particular person within the nation, however he wasn’t the second both. Andriy Borysovych [Yermak] made selections on behalf of Volodymyr Zelensky and the complete mono-power. One of the privileges was immunity. An individual/firm protected by Yermak was “now not seen” not solely by the standard safety and legislation enforcement forces, however even by the NABU and SAPO (Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office) (it doesn’t matter what legends they’d compiled about themselves).
A superb instance will not be solely Myndych’s imaginary group, but additionally fairly actual characters such because the governor of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, and funding bankers from the Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) group. Now each gamers stand to lose every thing, having misplaced their dependable cowl.
Pyshnyi is overtly Yermak’s godfather, and ICU seems to be covertly managing the cash of Yermak’s entourage. Both had been a part of his energy. Even the battle between them didn’t change this rule. In January 2024, the National Bank eliminated Makar Paseniuk and Kostiantyn Stetsenko from the administration of Avangard Bank. But the story was rapidly hushed up. As in different conditions, ICU has escaped with out penalties, and is now (with the permission of the NBU governor) fixing its downside. Yermak, as anticipated, ensured immunity for each of them till ‘Black Friday’.
Now they’re in a dangerous place. Pyshnyi managed to make many enemies who couldn’t attain him due to Yermak. And ICU has collected a superb dozen episodes for which the corporate might be actually torn aside by the safety forces of a number of international locations.
They even have a “joint challenge”. After the full-scale invasion, Ukraine liquidated the Ukrainian subsidiary of Sberbank of Russia. Among different belongings, it held UAH 9 billion price of Ukrainian authorities bonds. Coincidentally, these bonds had been “hanging” on the accounts of ICU and Avangard Bank. At the tip of 2022, the Ministry of Finance repaid them, and Avangard’s accounts (managed by ICU) ended up with UAH 9 billion. They needed to be transferred to the funds. But ICU went to courtroom and blocked the write-off for a 12 months. The National Bank “did not discover” and even allowed the blokes to proceed incomes cash, which is important in itself.
Paseniuk and Stetsenko invested in NBU certificates of deposit, which allowed them to earn as much as 25% every year. Things had been going nicely, and in only one 12 months, ICU earned about UAH 1 billion on Sberbank of Russia bonds. What occurred subsequent adopted the logic nicely described within the cartoon “Prostokvashino”: the cow is state-owned, however the milk is ours. Paseniuk and Stetsenko determined to return 9 billion to the state and hold the curiosity for themselves. In specific, they paid themselves bonuses price UAH 580 million, and siphoned them off by transferring overseas, bypassing the NBU’s ban.
I do not know who Paseniuk and Stetsenko shared it with. But I believe they forgot to thank Pyshny. He doesn’t forgive such issues. The NBU performed inspections, “noticed” the violations and eliminated Paseniuk and Stetsenko from the administration of Avangard Bank. At the NBU’s instigation, a scandal erupted, and the Cabinet of Ministers sued ICU, demanding that they return UAH 2.1 billion to the state.
https://epravda.com.ua/publications/2024/01/29/709246
Paseniuk and Stetsenko tried to get the cash and the financial institution again by means of the courts. However, they misplaced.
The most attention-grabbing half got here subsequent. When everybody had forgotten in regards to the public flogging, Paseniuk and Stetsenko got a singular alternative by Pyshnyi. For a number of months now, they’ve been going across the market providing to purchase Avangard from them. This appears to be a great way out of a scenario the place the state can look good and the ICU house owners can stroll away with the cash.
The mere reality of such a sale is already poisonous to the popularity of the NBU governor. After all, the latter is taking part in behind the again of the Cabinet of Ministers, serving to ICU to do away with a precious asset in secret. Most possible, Paseniuk and Stetsenko would by no means have been given again the proper to handle Avangard, and the financial institution would have needed to be liquidated. Therefore, whereas everybody had forgotten in regards to the scandal, the NBU allowed the financial institution to be bought.
But that is not all. According to my sources, the National Bank (learn Pyshnyi) has already prolonged the deadline for the sale of the financial institution a number of instances. This already raises suspicions of corruption.
Even this isn’t all. It turned out that nobody was serious about Avangard by itself. The financial institution was precious solely as an appendage to the ICU group, permitting it to avoid wasting on commissions and hold its transactions secret. However, it isn’t a basic financial institution. It has no buyer base, no loans and no card enterprise. In reality, all of the financial institution has is a licence and securities portfolios. If somebody desires a financial institution, there are extra engaging provides in the marketplace. In specific, Lviv and Poltava banks are being bought, and the privatisation of state-owned Sense and Ukrgas is on the horizon. Against their background, nobody is serious about Avangard.
Therefore, it’s extremely possible that ICU will conduct a fictitious transaction. In order to not lose Avangard fully, it can promote the financial institution to a shell firm for a nominal sum. And then ICU will both proceed to work with it or promote it later. Perhaps, to make this deal marketable, ICU concerned Altius Capital, which not too long ago accomplished a deal to purchase a golf membership for Tymofiy Mylovanov. Please word that Mylovanov can also be a part of Yermak’s entourage. Although, as of final Friday, it’s right to say that he “was once in Yermak’s entourage”.
And in fact, such a fictitious transaction could be not possible with out the NBU’s permission. However, the probability of such a service has fallen sharply since ‘Black Friday’.
If the model of the fictional deal is true, it is going to be extraordinarily poisonous for each Pyshnyi and ICU. Especially on condition that Yermak is now not heading the President’s Office, and they’re primarily left with out a patron in energy.
In normal, after Yermak’s resignation, the chair underneath Pyshnyi will most likely shake. The NBU governor has collected so many enemies that he actually ought to go searching. Trouble may now come from any path.
Even on the top of ‘Myndych-gate’, nameless channels on Telegram began promising a sequel. It has lengthy been mentioned that the present authorities has significantly expanded the playing enterprise by making state-owned banks a part of the cash assortment system. Only the lazy didn’t know that Timur Myndych had appointed an individual to “watch over” Sense Bank, and his (Myndych’s) foremost curiosity was servicing monetary flows from the playing enterprise. Of course, all this might not have occurred with out Pyshnyi.
Pyshnyi additionally has different causes for concern. Being Yermak’s crony till now assured him private immunity in outdated circumstances. For instance, he was not touched within the case of the Gulliver purchasing centre, the scheme with deposit certificates and quite a few different episodes.
One can hardly envy the ICU Group both. Since Yanukovych’s time, they’ve collected quite a few episodes that might result in the deprivation of the proper to work within the Ukrainian market. Criminal circumstances for cooperation with sanctioned individuals are additionally doable. It is probably going that ICU continues to be servicing the cash of Poroshenko and Hryhoryshyn (each underneath sanctions), and has agreements with Russia’s VTB (which is underneath worldwide sanctions).
But the principle hazard going through the group is publicity. For instance, there’s a robust suspicion that ICU is “sitting” on the notorious Yaresko warrants. This is not directly evidenced by the truth that Cleary Gottlieb is each the present authorized advisor to ICU and the advisor to the warrant holders. It is sort of doable that Yermak’s entourage was additionally “sitting” there.
The disclosure of those and plenty of different episodes may outcome within the group’s licence being revoked in London and an investigation by the FCA (the UK’s monetary regulator).
All of those dangers had been ready to occur whereas Yermak was heading the Presidential Office. Now, fairly unexpectedly, they’ve exploded. Yesterday, the masters of destiny became the persecuted. ‘Black Friday’ certainly. Life has a way of humour.
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