“What we will see is funerals roll out over the following few days, and that is going to be our indicator as to the Hamas members who survived and those that didn’t,” Norm Roule, former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran instructed The Cipher Brief in an unique interview.
Regardless of the success of Israel’s operation, specialists are already assessing the broader affect of the strike – the primary of its type towards a member nation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
THE CONTEXT
- Hamas, which launched a lethal terrorist assault towards Israel on October 7, 2023, has maintained a political workplace in Doha since 2012.
- The U.S. ceasefire proposal consists of the discharge of all 48 remaining hostages in trade for a ceasefire, a launch of probably 2,500-3,000 Palestinian prisoners, and the top of the Israeli operation in Gaza.
- Since the strike in Doha, Hamas says it is not going to change its phrases for a deal, together with its demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and rebuking calls to disarm.
- After the strike, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that his administration was notified by the U.S. navy that Israel would strike Hamas in Doha. He was important of the unilateral assault on a key U.S. ally, saying it runs counter to peace efforts and “doesn’t advance Israel or America’s targets.” But he described eliminating Hamas as a “worthy purpose.” He mentioned he assured the Qatari management that such an assault wouldn’t occur once more and reiterated the necessity for a Gaza peace deal.
- Israel ordered a full evacuation of Gaza City on Tuesday, signaling that it’s shifting ahead with a brand new navy offensive there.
- As of final Thursday, Israel managed 40% of Gaza City. The Israeli navy says it occupies 75 p.c of Gaza, whereas the UN says 87% is both deemed a militarized zone or is presently underneath evacuation orders.
THE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI – who travels usually to the area for conferences with senior officers – concerning the most certainly regional affect of Israel’s newest assault. Our dialog has been frivolously edited for size and readability.
Norman T. Roule
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and power advisor who served for 34 years within the Central Intelligence Agency, managing quite a few packages regarding Iran and the Middle East. He additionally served because the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I)n at ODNI, the place he was accountable for all elements of nationwide intelligence coverage associated to Iran.
The Cipher Brief: An Israeli assault inside Qatar is a dangerous endeavor at this level in Israel’s conflict towards Hamas. There has been a whole lot of dialog about whether or not the U.S. had a information of this assault prematurely and the way the White House has responded since.
Roule: Well, the White House has said that the Israeli authorities did present superior discover. That language is essential as a result of though the president of the United States did give a closing warning to Hamas – and the president’s closing warnings are inclined to certainly have some finality to them based mostly upon earlier examples – it’s virtually sure that the United States wouldn’t have participated within the planning of an operation towards Qatar, nearly sure. And certainly the Israeli authorities wouldn’t have needed the United States to be concerned in one thing like this. But the Israeli authorities would’ve needed to inform the United States, “Look, that is occurring. So in case your forces do see incoming plane, this isn’t an adversary’s plane coming in. They mustn’t see this as an assault on themselves.”
The White House has said that superior discover was given, and I consider the studies state that the president instructed notification to the Qataris in order that they themselves would have been in a position to perceive that this isn’t, say, the Iranians conducting a strike. And additionally to grasp that this strike had a really restricted objective. It was not a part of a broader marketing campaign, and that they themselves mustn’t take any broader motion to escalate the battle.
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The Cipher Brief: What does this assault imply for the area? It creates much more issues in an already extremely difficult conflict towards Hamas.
Roule: I feel it is vital that we first contemplate among the perspective about what this implies within the area as a complete. Prior to the October seventh conflict, Israel’s safety doctrine was ‘we’ve an excellent intelligence service’. The excellent navy and allies will stand with us. But that did not do a lot to cease the October seventh conflict.
Since that battle, their doctrine has modified and we have seen on this newest assault, the newest chapter in that doctrine, which now could be that ‘we’ve an outstanding intelligence group and it’ll establish our adversaries who had been out to kill us, and our navy goes to get to them first-no matter the place they’re. And we are going to take out excessive worth targets utilizing precision navy know-how that’s far past the aptitude of any of our adversaries. And this will likely be anyplace, wherever our adversaries could also be’. This began out in Beirut and moved to Syria after which it turned to Iran with the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in 2024. And we have seen it lately in Sana’a. And now we have seen throughout the GCC itself. This is a model new Middle East on this regard.
For the Middle East, as they have a look at Israel and a few have requested whether or not Israel is a disruptive actor, I feel that is the flawed characterization. But it’s a right characterization to say that Israel is not going to tolerate the presence of aggressive deadly actors plotting the demise of Israelis anyplace within the area any longer. And certainly, simply two days in the past, the identical actors that Israel attacked in Doha had been assembly the Iranian international minister, I feel in the identical location the place the Israelis attacked.
Qatar has all the time been a really particular location on this regard as a result of Qatar was type of like a Switzerland, if you should use that instance. For a number of years, individuals may meet there; the Taliban, Hamas, and numerous U.S. administrations tolerated this. Indeed, the Israelis despatched their very own personnel to fulfill Hamas interlocutors there, and these Hamas interlocutors had blood on their arms. Clearly, that has now come to an finish.
So now the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which isn’t any pal of Hamas and has had its personal points with Qatar, will deliberate this situation. They will wish to see how the mud settles. They could have a typical place. They don’t want this to escalate. But on the similar time, they’re a area that’s more and more delicate to this new Israeli posture.
The Cipher Brief: Doha responded robustly, condemning the assault. How do you suppose the U.S. ought to be influencing occasions shifting ahead?
Roule: The Qataris condemned the assault, unsurprisingly. This is a violation of their sovereignty. They’ve described this as a cowardly assault. They will definitely withdraw from taking part in a task as an interlocutor with the Israelis, that is unsurprising. This additionally signifies that the Qataris will name upon the GCC to face with them on this place. And that is more likely to occur.
They will ask the United States to restrain Israel from conducting related assaults sooner or later and the United States will definitely achieve this. The United States doesn’t want to have a problem, an issue of this nature with the Qataris for plenty of causes, starting from our navy relationship, to our safety relationship, to our funding relationships with the Qataris. There are a wide range of completely different causes.
But the Qataris are going to wish to preserve their home safety, and so they’re not going to wish to increase this as a broader drawback.
At the top of the day, there is a actuality that the Qataris should cope with, too. Their business relationship with Iran by the South Pars Gas Field, that is not going go away. So their gasoline relationship goes to remain, however their engagement with Hamas, it is most likely not going to be the identical sooner or later – if solely as a result of a lot of the Hamas management is gone and the talks aren’t going to proceed.
I feel in some ways, that the Trump administration’s strategy to the Middle East has been fairly constant and fairly clear. They search to make sure that there isn’t a typical conflict within the Middle East that includes U.S. forces. And that features a typical conflict within the Middle East that’s instigated by Israel, and so they’ve caught to that. They will, nonetheless, take part in navy motion if Iran strikes in direction of nuclear weaponization or militaries or terrorist assaults towards the United States. And we noticed that in June, however once more, they ended that battle relatively crisply.
They will even pursue diplomatic exercise robustly talking with virtually anybody – together with Hamas – even when Israel is sad about it. They will communicate with Iran, even when Israel’s sad about it. But these should be real talks. And if the Trump administration believes that their time is being wasted, because the president has repeatedly said, then hell will likely be paid. And he is been fairly clear on that. He will even present navy capability to regional companions to conduct their very own protection or regional offensive actions to attain what they consider is critical for his or her safety. And that might be regional actors conducting their very own work towards Iranian proxies, but in addition Israeli actions to conduct what it sees as its personal work.
I feel you may see the United States in essence, say to the area, ‘over to you to deal with your individual work, your individual points, as a result of it is your issues to type out more and more’. As lengthy because it does not create a disruptive battle that ignites the area, as a complete.
The Cipher Brief: An answer to the Gaza battle actually does appear distant. We’ve talked now for a few years about what does the top state seem like for Israel and it does not really feel like we’re any nearer to a solution. What are the weather you’ll be on the lookout for to point {that a} answer is on the horizon?
Roule: Well, here is one other factor the place I’ve obtained to reward the Trump administration for a really constant Middle Eastern coverage. Again, no matter one’s political beliefs are, I can not consider one other political administration in trendy occasions that has devoted a lot time and power to the Middle East since its first moments in workplace. And we’ve seen even lately with the go to of former prime minister, Tony Blair and former particular Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner to the White House, that even now, you see layers inside layers inside layers of exercise and engagement and diplomatic engagement to attempt to provide you with options which might be outdoors of the limelight of what’s a really contentious and really well-trodden diplomatic path. I do consider that we are able to see how this chaos will finish. I do not know whether or not it’s going to finish within the close to time period or if we are going to ever get there, however you’ll be able to see some components of what the area is on the lookout for.
So first, we are going to see some type of humanitarian answer to offer the long-suffering Palestinians of Gaza with the meals, training and medical care that they so desperately have to resolve what’s rightfully a stain on our era. And this is a gigantic problem as a result of we now have some years of a inhabitants which were denied these capacities, which has remodeled the character of this society. And I do not suppose we but perceive what this implies as to who they may turn into.
What does it imply when you may have youngsters who haven’t been to high school for 3 or 4 years, who haven’t had training, web, medical care, and have watched the world round them go on this path? Who do they turn into in three to 5 years in the event that they immigrate to different nations? Who are these individuals?
And I feel we will see some answer involving the Gulf States and involving Gulf funding. And you are going to see Saudi Arabia and the Emirates specifically, present training reform for the Palestinian authority or its successor. A reform of the engagement of the federal government, of the Palestinian entity with these individuals and its inhabitants so funds are made that do not assist militancy and that human reform by way of hiring is completed that does not promote militancy.
And final, you are going to see some type of capability towards corruption. Because that has, in essence, undermined the effectiveness of the Palestinian authority. You’ve obtained some issues right here. You’ve obtained the difficulty of what do you do concerning the Palestinian authority, which was solely purported to be round for just a few months and is led by somebody who is extremely unpopular and does not appear to wish to go away?
How is he dealt with in that political assemble sooner or later? That situation should be resolved. You’ll have some substitute entity created, maybe involving the Palestinian authority or a successor. would suppose if I had been creating this as an Arab-European assemble with American management, you’ll wish to have this supported by Israel, however not as an Israeli thought, however not blocked as an Israeli thought.
You’re going to should have one thing finished to deal with drawback of settlers and the West Bank situation so {that a} viable political entity is no less than a assemble in individuals’s heads. But within the quick time period, the concept of a Palestinian state is one thing that may be very fashionable to speak about by individuals who, in essence, have the time to speak about it at espresso retailers and in suppose tanks. But do not should say, “Well, how do you do that on the bottom in a Gaza or in a West Bank with out, in essence, creating the identical mess we’ve at present?” That is years from occurring.
So I feel making a state-like construction after which constructing in direction of a state sooner or later sooner or later the place the adults on the bottom are going to say, “We’ll let the political actors or the individuals with time of their arms yak a couple of state, however we simply wish to get issues working in order that we are able to feed individuals and provides them a life after which construct towards that state.” I feel what I’ve simply talked about on this messy approach, these components are all going to look. But we’re not there but as a result of the violence of Gaza stays a course of. And the Israeli authorities is dedicated to a navy answer. It does not appear to have an finish recreation but for what it sees in Gaza. Hamas seems to be shifting hostages into Gaza City itself as a result of it sees that as a approach of placing extra strain on the Israeli authorities. So, we’re nonetheless on this crucible of blood and violence for the close to time period, unhappily.
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