In the twenty first century, international competitors is not nearly oil and fuel – it’s about wheat, water, and climate, writes Aidarbek Khojanazarov.
The meals system is below unprecedented strain: battle, local weather, and provide chain shocks are driving meals insecurity to document ranges. According to FAO, 733 million folks skilled starvation in 2023, whereas meals manufacturing should develop by not less than 60% by 2050 to fulfill international demand. This is not only a humanitarian difficulty – it’s a geopolitical one. Food is changing into the brand new oil.
And on this new period, Kazakhstan is quietly repositioning itself as a practical, impartial, and more and more strategic meals provider – a landlocked nation turning foodlocked, and one that will nicely grow to be a part of the reply to the worldwide imbalance in agricultural safety.
A sleeping big awakens
With 180 million hectares of agricultural land – of which greater than 75% is arable – Kazakhstan is among the many most resource-rich nations by way of farming potential. It ranks within the high 10 international wheat exporters, and in 2023, exported 9.2 million tonnes of grain. Flour exports rose by 20%, whereas oilseed processing added $400 million to nationwide revenues. But the story is not nearly uncooked commodities. Kazakhstan is intentionally transferring towards value-added agri-production and constructing institutional capability to help a full agribusiness transformation.
In 2024 alone, public funding in agriculture exceeded $500 million, together with subsidies, irrigation growth, tax incentives, and digital monitoring methods. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, common crop yields in key areas have elevated by 15% over the previous decade. A nationwide community of grain reserves and procurement mechanisms has helped stabilize market costs and enhance farmer incomes.
Kazakhstan’s quiet meals diplomacy
Where others depend on megaphone diplomacy, Kazakhstan is forging a quieter path – one rooted in pragmatism, resilience, and logistical ingenuity. In 2024, Kazakhstan equipped one-third of all grain purchases made by the Islamic Organization for Food Security (IOFS), primarily through long-term contracts that introduced in over $400 million. This positions Kazakhstan not simply as a vendor, however as a strategic guarantor of meals reserves for the Muslim world.
This rising function isn’t any accident. Kazakhstan has deepened cooperation with the UN FAO, World Food Programme (WFP), and the Islamic Development Bank, aligning itself with international efforts to construct clear and resilient meals methods. At the nationwide stage, agricultural transformation has been outlined as central to Kazakhstan’s financial sustainability.
In a world fragmented by warfare and mistrust, Kazakhstan is leveraging its “quiet meals diplomacy” to achieve new affect. When a container of Kazakh wheat arrives in Karachi or Dubai, it has crossed deserts, dodged damaged corridors, and reconnected fractured markets. These routes – as soon as ignored – have gotten new arteries of world resilience.
In his newest State of the Nation Address, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasised that the agribusiness sector should grow to be one in every of Kazakhstan’s key drivers of development. This displays a deliberate coverage shift: Kazakhstan goals not solely to stay a high grain exporter, but additionally to develop value-added manufacturing. Support for farmers, funding in irrigation and digitalization, and a stronger give attention to sustainability align carefully with the EU’s Green Deal priorities and create new alternatives for partnership.
A strategic comparability: Why Kazakhstan?
One could ask: why Kazakhstan and never, say, Australia or Canada? The reply lies in geography, neutrality, and flexibility.
Geography: Unlike maritime exporters, Kazakhstan bridges Central Asia, the Middle East, and China. It anchors the Trans-Caspian route, a essential different to the disrupted Black Sea hall. Exports to Xinjiang, China rose 60% in 2024 alone, whereas routes by way of Iran now present entry to India and Pakistan.
Neutrality: Kazakhstan’s international coverage is balanced and non-confrontational – an important asset in polarized instances. While Australia and Canada are more and more entangled in geopolitical blocs, Kazakhstan presents a impartial, secure, and pragmatic different.
Agility: Kazakhstan is prepared to adapt. State-owned procurement companies as soon as thought-about Soviet relics now act as market stabilizers. Farmers acquire predictable costs, and importers acquire reliable provide.
According to OECD assessments, nations that may guarantee meals transparency and keep away from export bans will grow to be most popular companions in future meals offers. Kazakhstan is actively transferring in that course.
Infrastructure: The bottleneck and the breakthrough
Kazakhstan’s potential is actual – however so are its constraints. Port capability in Aktau and Kuryk is proscribed to three million tonnes yearly, whereas demand exceeds 7 million. Trans-Caspian transport prices attain $80 per tonne, lowering competitiveness versus Russian or Turkish grain.
Yet funding right here might unlock exponential returns. Experts estimate that $700 million in infrastructure modernization might yield $500 million in annual income. Moreover, local weather volatility already causes as much as 10% crop loss in dry years, underlining the necessity for crop insurance coverage schemes and worth stabilization funds – each at the moment in growth.
From landlocked to foodlocked
Kazakhstan’s agricultural rise will not be a short-term pivot, however a long-term technique. The nation is integrating extra deeply with platforms of the EU, China, and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. With constant funding and modernization, Kazakhstan might evolve into the spine logistics hub for meals distribution throughout Eurasia.
In an more and more divided world, the place belief is scarce and meals insecurity is rising, Kazakhstan is not only a provider – it may be a stabilizing drive. Its quiet meals diplomacy presents an instance of how center powers can lead not with dominance, however with reliability.
And on this new race – the place wheat could matter greater than oil – Kazakhstan is a rustic price watching.
About the creator
Aidarbek Khojanazarov is the chairman of the Respublica Party, which has entered parliament and is likely one of the influential political forces within the Mazhilis. He is a member of the Committee on Agrarian Issues of the Mazhilis. Previously, he served as Chairman of the Board of JSC National Managing Holding KazAgro. He additionally labored as Chief Executive Officer of OlzhaAgro, one of many largest agro-industrial holdings in Kazakhstan, encompassing a community of manufacturing and processing firms. Mr. Khojanazarov is a seasoned entrepreneur with in depth expertise in agribusiness and nationwide financial growth.
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