The run-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup started in earnest Friday, with the group-by-group draw for the 48-team area revealed. (Eventually. After musical performances, the standard FIFA- and Kennedy Center-style bombast and, for some cause, Kevin Hart.)
The full schedule will not be revealed till Saturday — why rush, proper? — however we all know who, the place and when the match’s hosts will play. Let’s break down what the U.S. males’s nationwide crew will face and make some speedy, ironclad and infallible predictions.
Game-by-game breakdown
There’s an opportunity that the U.S. will find yourself in a bunch with three groups it has already performed in 2025. The Americans beat Australia in an October pleasant and Paraguay in November; in the meantime, they misplaced to Türkiye in June. Türkiye would be the favourite to advance from UEFA’s Path C playoff, one which additionally entails Kosovo, Slovakia and Romania.
Paraguay
June 12 | Inglewood, California
FIFA rating: 39
Elo rating: 21
When the U.S. beat Paraguay 2-1 in Philadelphia final month, it was seen as an indication of strong progress — Paraguay completed just one level exterior of second in CONMEBOL qualification, beating Brazil (1-0), Argentina (2-1) and Uruguay (2-0) at residence and ending with extra qualification wins than losses for the primary time since 2010.
Paraguay boast some acquainted faces for American followers: Veteran winger Miguel Almirón performs for Atlanta United once more after a protracted stint at Newcastle United, and 22-year-old midfielder Diego Gómez has been a breakout performer for Brighton & Hove Albion this season within the Premier League. Strasbourg‘s 21-year-old Julio Enciso is rapidly making a reputation for himself as nicely. But the meat of this squad performs in South America — captain Gustavo Gómez, along with his 86 caps, performs for Palmeiras, as does midfielder Ramón Sosa, and a majority of the 26-man roster will probably hail from golf equipment in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.
After Gio Reyna‘s early strike gave the U.S. the lead in Philly, Almirón assisted on an Alex Arce objective to make it 1-1 earlier than Folarin Balogun scored within the 71st minute to present the U.S. the win in a cagey match that featured 50% extra fouls (24) than shot makes an attempt (16). Expect related physicality at SoFi Stadium.
Australia
June 19 | Seattle
FIFA rating: 26
Elo rating: 30
A full week after the Paraguay match, the U.S. will head to Seattle to face one other latest foe. Australia made simple work of World Cup qualification, dropping solely as soon as in 16 matches and outscoring outmanned opponents by a mixed 52-3. They started 2025 with seven straight wins earlier than their 2-1 defeat to the U.S., and previously two years they’ve performed 10 groups on this World Cup area, dropping to solely the U.S. and, in February 2024, South Korea.
This is a robust, cohesive crew, nevertheless it lacks a bit in terms of major-club expertise. Among latest call-ups, solely midfielders Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe (each St. Pauli), defenders Kasey Bos (Mainz) and Alessandro Circati (Parma) and veteran goalkeeper Mathew Ryan (Levante) play for groups in Europe’s Big Five leagues. (Bos has but to make an official nationwide crew look.)
Feyenoord’s Jordan Bos put Australia forward of the U.S. in October’s pleasant earlier than two Haji Wright targets, each assisted by Cristian Roldan, gave the Americans the win. Australia allowed the U.S. to dominate possession (63%) however gave up simply 11 shot makes an attempt, three from inside 14 meters. That was regular: They are pure and keen underdogs, blissful to cede the ball and create counterattacking alternatives — even whereas rolling by means of qualification; the truth is, they loved solely 53% possession.
UEFA Path C playoff winner: Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo
June 25 | Inglewood, California
FIFA rankings: Türkiye (25), Slovakia (45), Romania (47), Kosovo (80)
Elo rankings: Türkiye (15), Kosovo (42), Slovakia (48), Romania (53)
It’s onerous to preview 4 groups directly, however let’s give it a strive. On March 26, Slovakia will host Kosovo in a single playoff semifinal whereas Türkiye and Romania meet within the different. The winners will face off 5 days later with a spot in Group D — and a June 25 date with the U.S. in Southern California — on the road.
As you possibly can see from the rankings above, Türkiye should be thought-about the favorites to advance, though the prospect of profitable a pair of single-elimination matches signifies that nobody will be heavy favorites. Türkiye certainly defeated the U.S. in East Hartford in June: Jack McGlynn scored within the first minute for the hosts, however targets from Real Madrid‘s Arda Güler and Fenerbahce‘s Kerem Aktürkoglu gave Türkiye a bonus they would not cede. In Güler, Juventus‘ Kenan Yildiz and Eintracht Frankfurt‘s Can Uzun — all 20 years previous — the crew boasts a number of the brightest younger attacking expertise on the planet, though protection let it down at instances in World Cup qualification: Türkiye gave up eight targets in two matches towards Spain.
If Türkiye do not advance, Slovakia is perhaps thought-about the second favorites. They have reached the knockout rounds of two of the previous three World Cups, and their squad might function veterans comparable to midfielder Stanislav Lobotka (Napoli) and defenders Milan Skriniar (Fenerbahce) and Dávid Hancko (Atlético Madrid). They beat Germany to start qualification play, however an absence of scoring (six targets in six matches) rendered them the group runners-up.
Meanwhile, Romania positioned third of their qualification group, behind Austria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, however superior to the playoff due to a robust Nations League efficiency. It would deliver an skilled squad to the U.S. — and there can be symmetry of kinds, with the Americans and Romanians sharing a bunch simply as they did in 1994 — however there is not lots of major-club expertise on the squad. Kosovo are enjoying for his or her first main match berth since declaring independence 15 years in the past and boast fairly a number of gamers in Serie A (together with captain Amir Rrahmani, of Napoli) and the Bundesliga (together with 23-year-old TSG Hoffenheim star Fisnik Asllani). — Bill Connelly
How far will the U.S. go?
Connelly: Though Türkiye might find yourself being a high-end impediment, that is about as favorable of a bunch because the U.S. might have hoped for. Paraguay and Australia are gifted, however neither is within the prime 20 of both the present FIFA or Elo rankings, and if Türkiye do not advance, there shall be no top-20 groups.
We’ll maintain these predictions easy and, nicely, predictable. Home groups normally fare relatively nicely within the World Cup, and with even stronger and extra partisan crowds in its favor than it noticed in late-2025 friendlies, we’ll say that the U.S. is ready to again up these pleasant wins with victories in its first two matches. The Americans will survive a bodily check from Paraguay by a 1-0 margin, then beat Australia 3-1 with a late counterattacking rating. That will take the strain off for the ultimate match, and whereas it might be fairly simple to foretell a loss or draw towards Türkiye and a win over any of the opposite playoff winners, we’ll break up the distinction and name for a 1-1 draw. That will put the U.S. at seven factors, which might have gained any of the teams within the 2022 World Cup.
Mauricio Pochettino’s crew will advance to play the third-place squad in Group B, E, F, I or J, and a win would doubtlessly put the Americans up towards Group G’s winner (in all probability Belgium) within the spherical of 16. Again: It’s onerous to ask for a draw rather more favorable than this, even when a quarterfinal berth probably means a matchup with Spain, England, Portugal or Colombia.
Jeff Carlisle: I feel for the U.S., Group D has some tough features to it, particularly if Türkiye emerge from the playoff. If that occurs, the typical FIFA rank in Group D will make it essentially the most aggressive within the match. My sense, nonetheless, is it might have been far worse. The U.S. prevented Norway from Pot 3 and Italy (in all probability) from Pot 4, and Australia is without doubt one of the lower-ranked groups from Pot 2. The U.S. has additionally overwhelmed two out of the three probably groups in its group previously two months, these being Australia and Paraguay.
For that cause, in addition to the truth that the Americans will benefit from the assist of the house crowd, the U.S. ought to count on to win the group. And in lots of respects, it must win the group. Doing that will see it play one of many third-place groups within the spherical of 32 earlier than doubtlessly dealing with the winner of Group G within the spherical of 16, with Belgium the favourite to emerge from that group.
But make no mistake, this won’t by any means be simple. Though the U.S. defeated Australia and Paraguay, the matches weren’t pushovers. Türkiye beat the U.S. fairly simply in June, however that looks like a lifetime in the past for this U.S. squad. In the meantime, the objective for the U.S. over the following six months shall be to proceed to enhance.
Cesar Hernandez: Sure, Australia and Paraguay will not be simple and the U.S. simply narrowly defeated each of them 2-1 within the fall, however Pochettino ought to really feel assured about his crew’s probabilities in its first two matches of the group stage. Assuming the Americans get the job accomplished and keep away from a loss, they appear more likely to acquire three extra factors towards the European playoff winner: Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo.
Subsequently, because the chief of Group D, it might then get pleasure from dealing with a third-place aspect within the spherical of 32. Once by means of there, although, the percentages are probably that the Americans would face a crew comparable to Belgium within the spherical of 16. Even with a home-field benefit that’ll increase its probabilities, it is tough to foretell a profitable consequence towards the extremely gifted European aspect.
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‘That’s my home alarm!’ Frank Leboeuf interrupts World Cup draw watchalong
Frank Leboeuf is left red-faced as his cell phone alarm goes off throughout the ESPN FC Live World Cup draw watchalong.
It may not be a dream run for the Americans, however they’re going to at the least have one knockout spherical win in hand.
All that stated, the group stage will not be easy both, particularly if Türkiye earn that last ticket into Group D. Their introduction might make this extra of a free-for-all within the chase for knockout spherical invites.
Lizzy Becherano: The U.S. can and may dream about reaching manner past the group stage of the match.
The Americans’ opener towards Paraguay shall be a tough however honest matchup. Although only a pleasant, the U.S. simply beat Paraguay 2-1 within the November worldwide window. The stakes shall be a lot larger subsequent summer season, however at the least Pochettino noticed a glimpse of success towards the long run opponents.
As for the sport towards Australia, the U.S. enters as favourite with the consolation of enjoying at residence. Although Pochettino & Co. cannot really begin planning till a winner from March’s playoff is confirmed, any of the 4 choices will be thought-about beatable. Türkiye would pose the best menace, however dreaming of a first-place group stage end is feasible.
Realistically, the U.S. can advance as winner of Group D, giving the Americans higher odds of much less hectic route within the knockouts. On residence turf, the U.S. has a good likelihood of impressing on the 2026 World Cup.
